S&P 500 annual price returns, with a normal overlay

Bars are history from beginning-of-year index levels (1 Jan 1925 through 1 Jan 2026), 101 annual price returns. The curve is the normal with this sample’s mean and sigma (8.42%, 18.49%). Drag the threshold to read the left-tail two ways: share of actual years, and area under the fitted normal. Cash line is the 3-month T-bill at 3.8%.