This site was built for you my dear subscribers. As this site continues to evolve, this page will evolve along with it. Confluent Research is an independent shop with lofty goals and large ambitions but with a tight marketing budget and even tighter timelines. The site will strive to post news, articles, and anything that’s useful to my dear subscribers. I publish new work regular basis to keep things fresh and up to date.
Start here. This page is the hub. Below are samples of the latest posts on the site. I occasionally make changes and updates to this page so it wouldn’t hurt to check things out from time to time. The posts below are the ones worth revisiting — research, figures, and tools. When a piece earns a place here, it gets a short pitch and a link.ing soon.
Risk. Wealth. Utility – A primer.
Three words before any formula. Risk is the chance something bad happens — not a guarantee. Wealth is the stock we measure in dollars. Utility is why the stock matters: it buys freedom and the ability to choose. Manage risk; do not pretend it is optional. The later posts put numbers on the paycheck and the hole. This one names the frame.
The market’s long-run paycheck. Is “buy and hold” still the right approach?
The pitch everyone knows is that time in the market beats timing. This post puts a hundred-year price sample on the table and asks a harder question: how wide is the miss around that average, and can a household live through it. Mean near 8.43%. Sample standard deviation near 18.58%. That pair is the invoice.
The Rule of 72: A Simple Trick to Master Your Investment Timeline
A back-of-the-napkin CAGR. Divide 72 by the annual rate and you have a working estimate of how many years it takes to double the money. 6% → about 12 years. 8% → about 9. It is an estimate, not a promise, and it assumes the rate holds. Use it to size time. Then read the paycheck post for what that rate has actually looked like — and how wide the miss has been.
Understanding the Path to Recovery: The Mathematics of Loss Recovery
A 50% loss does not come back with a 50% gain. It takes 100% just to get the dollars back. The Rule of 72 tells you how long a steady rate takes to double. This post is the other side: how deep a hole costs you in time. Together they are the simple compounding kit — growth on the way up, arithmetic on the way down.